MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THRITYFIVE) WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 77 NM EAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT BUT SHEARED CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A PARTIAL 241155Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THIS IS IN LINE WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 35W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 35W ALSO HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. THOUGH TAU 24, TD 35W WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MODERATE WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. BY TAU 36, THE STR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALLOWING TD 35W TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPROVE AND ALLOW TD 35W TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 125NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. C. AFTER TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES WILL PREVENT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 45 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO STEER TD 35W WESTWARD. TD 35W WILL ALSO BEING TO INTERACT WITH A SURGE EVENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 120 WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN