Tropical Storm BARIJAT Advisory 9月12日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (BARIJAT) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 27W (BARIJAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING THE EIR IMAGERY AND RJTD RADAR FIXES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BETWEEN RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 AND T3.0 (35-45 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW, WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. TS BARIJAT WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STR
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED (45 KNOTS) DUE TO THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
LEIZHOU PENINSULA WILL CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES BY TAU 72 WEST OF HANOI, VIETNAM. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LOW, BASED ON HIGH SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.//
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