Tropical Storm MA-ON Advisory 11月12日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (MA-ON) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 27W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
111704Z AMSU MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND AN 111800Z PGTW SATELLITE
FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. TS 27W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT IS
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) DUE TO PERSISTENT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS MA-ON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
OFFSET INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, THE
NEGATIVE IMPACT OF INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE DISSIPATION
OF THE LLCC. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED STEADY
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL FORECASTS, AND THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST
LIES NEAR THIS CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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