Tropical Storm MALOU Advisory 10月28日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.6N 140.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL
ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION CIRCULATING AROUND A
FAIRLY RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR LOOP AND A 271635Z ATMS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 270820Z SMAP PASS; HEDGED LOWER THAN THE PGTW
AND THE KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 5.0 (90 KTS), AND CLOSER TO THE
RCTP DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 4.5 (77 KTS). OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
(ADT, SATCON) WERE ERRANTLY LOW TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION FOR
INITIAL INTENSITY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TY 25W
(MALOU) CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LATER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 271543Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 271730Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 25W (MALOU) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, INTERACTION WITH A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH MOVING OVER JAPAN WILL MAINTAIN ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT. AS A
RESULT, MAX INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24, JUST BEFORE
TY 25W ENTERS THE COOLER SSTS OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN BY TAU 48 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE JUST
AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS BELOW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH THE CROSS TRACK SPREAD GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 75 NM BY TAU 48,
INCREASING TO 150 NM BY TAU 60. ALONG TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 560
NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
UNTIL TAU 72 AND LIES DIRECTLY WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE
JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS GROUP, WHICH HAS BEEN IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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