Tropical Storm GONI Advisory 11月4日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR
028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION WITH NO
DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASSESSMENT OF THE OUTER LOW LEVEL CLOUD
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED LLCC AND A 031739Z ATMS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT OF 35 KNOTS WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN A PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 37 KNOTS. TS 22W PERSISTS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 CELSIUS). THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STEERING PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE FOR TS 22W AS
IT TRACKS GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN
VIETNAM, JUST AFTER TAU 48.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
FORECASTED IN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A VWS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS AND OUTFLOW TO REMAIN
LIMITED, INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE, WITH TRACKERS DIVERGING AFTER
TAU 12. NAVGEM SHOWS TS 22W MOVING NORTHWEST AND GFS SOLUTIONS
DIVERT SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, THE REMAINING MODELS AGREE WITH A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL. SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS
INCREASES TO OVER 250 NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST
SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
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