Tropical Storm MALAKAS Advisory 4月10日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS)
WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.7N 142.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 89 NM EAST OF FAIS ISLAND, FEDERATED
   STATES OF MICRONESIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM BOTH
091717Z GMI 89GHZ AND 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES, ALONG WITH A LATER
SET OF 091834Z SSMIS 89GHZ AND 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE BUT IN LINE WITH
MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES LISTED BELOW. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED AND IS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLC.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSETTING THE MODERATE TO STRONG VWS. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 091612Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 091740Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU
36, THE CYCLONE WILL SLIGHTLY JOG TO THE WEST, AND SLOW AS IT
BEGINS A POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TD 03W. THE DISTANCE
INDICATES NEARLY 590NM IN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TS
02W. TS MALAKAS WILL BEGIN ABSORBING THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE STR AXIS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A
STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS BY TAU 48. SOME INDICATIONS OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCUR NEAR TAU 72 AS TS MALAKAS ROUNDS THE
RIDGE AXIS. IT IS AT THIS JUNCTURE TS 02W WILL REACH ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100KTS AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD IWO TO.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES, WHERE IT WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE DYNAMIC
CHANGES OF COOL DRY AIR AND AN INCREASE OF VWS, WHICH WILL BEGIN
THE DECAYING PROCESS FOR TS 02W TO AN INTENSITY OF 80KTS BY TAU
120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY MODEST 117NM SPREAD OUT TO TAU 72 AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREADS
TO 250NM BY TAU 120. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE TRACK AT THIS TIME
IS THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH 03W. GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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