Tropical Storm KIROGI Advisory 11月19日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM EAST OF
HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CENTRAL
CONVECTION FLARING BACK UP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AND BEING
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND A LOW
REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN A 182323Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0-T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS). SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE AROUND 28 CELSIUS, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST OF TS 31W CREATING MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, DISPLACING BUILDING CONVECTION AND PREVENTING
ANY FURTHER CONSOLIDATION. TS 31W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WILL PERSIST AND THE CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SEVERELY
HINDERED AS LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
TS 31W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 24.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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